Cartoon 719: Possible vs. Probable

We are all familiar with the story of Chicken Little. Chicken Little went around saying the sky is falling. His cry was viewed as incredulous. Today there appears to be the cries of “chicken littles” everywhere. They are all over the internet and it is the essence of the forwarded email messages you often receive. Some times it is difficult to know what to think.

If my interest is awakened with one of these messages, and I am not certain if it is true, I go to the web. I go to “http://www.Snopes.com” to see what they have posted. The site tracks and analyses this type of thing.

However, most of the time the messages can be resolved by a common sense rule of thumb. It is a “priori” that everything is possible. But how probable or likely to occur is the given situation? In many cases it is obvious that the probable occurrence is very low.

It is possible the sky will fall on you. But it is highly unlikely it will be today.